The Definitive Breakdown of XXL’s 2011 Freshman List Posted by Nathan S. on 02/22/11 | Filed under Top Stories, Features, XXL Freshmen

I thought I'd have a little more time to but together a coherent analysis of XXL's 2011 Freshman list, but just a few hours after thier cover leaked the mag smartly decided to just go ahead and do the official release. So just like that I'm being pressed into action - we've got a lot of ground to cover, let's get at it.

Why Care?

Let's start at the beginning. As I briefly laid out yesterday it's a little unclear why everyone treats XXL's Freshman list like the holy grail. Like nearly every magazine their publication numbers have been plummeting (when's the last time you bought a copy?) and they haven't exactly made a successful transition to the digital age.

Still, like the Source and their 5 Mics, XXL has managed to play off their past success and continue to keep everyone talking about them, if only once a year. In fact, I'd compare them to an aging sports superstar who's well past their prime and essentially ordinary, but so respected that people continue to treat them like an All-Star. That's right, XXL"s the Derek Jeter of hip-hop journalism.

Of course, regardless of their diminishing status, if XXL's list were actually an accurate predictor of who was going to truly blow up I'd bow to them. But is it really?

Past Success

Not to get all Bill James/statshead on you, but let's take a moment to breakdown every XXL Freshman class in the past. For simplicity's sake, I'm dividing every artist into three categories: Flop (their career didn't go anywhere), Undetermined (they could go either way) or Established (they'll be making major moves for the foreseeable future). There might be some argument regarding a specific artist or two, but on the whole the point should be clear.

Class of 2007/2008 (a.k.a. Leaders of the New School)


Saigon - Flop (though maybe a miracle resurrection)
Plies - Flop
Rich Boy - Flop
Lupe Fiasco - Established
Lil Boosie - Flop
Gorilla Zoe - Flop
Joell Ortiz - Undetermined/Established
Crooked I - Undetermined/Established
Papoose - Flop
Young Dro - Flop

If you're looking for evidence that XXL doesn't know what the hell they're doing, this is the class you point to. Sweet baby jesus that's a terrible draft class - they're just one Slaughterhouse away from Lupe being the only non-flop.

Class of 2008/2009


Ace Hood - Flop
Curren$y - Undetermined
Kid Cudi - Established
Cory Gunz - Undetermined
Mickey Factz - Undetermined
Blu - Undetermined
Wale - Undetermined
Charles Hamilton - Flop
Asher Roth - Undetermined/Established
B.o.B. - Established

They obviously struck gold with B.o.B., but otherwise this class is one giant shrug. Ahhhh....it's ok.

2009/2010


J. Cole: Established
Nipsey Hu$$le: Flop/Undetermined
Pill: Undetermined
OJ Da Juiceman: Flop
Wiz Khalifa: Established
Big Sean: Undtermined/Established
Fashawn: Undetermined/Established
Freddie Gibbs: Undetermined/Established
Jay Rock: Flop/Undetermined
Donnis: Undetermined

By far their best class. OJ's the only straight up flop, there are a handful to true successes (J. Cole and Wiz Khalifa) and everyone else is somewhere in the middle.

Given that track record I'd say the connection between being named a XXL Freshman and becoming a successful and established artist is shaky at best. You could essentially pick rappers at random and come up an equally accurate prediction of who will be next to blow. Given that, a smart young rapper shouldn't be particularly mad they weren't named - you're really not missing out on anything more than a temporary publicity bump.

And it's worth noting that the new artists who have far and away made the most impact over the last four years, Drake and Nicki Minaj, are nowhere to be found.

(Of course, all this is assuming that their actual goal is to produce a high quality list, as opposed to simply getting people talking. With that in mind....)

This Year's Class

Lil Twist: Otherwise known as the annual "we have to include someone from Cash Money or Lil Wayne will stop giving us interviews" pick. I'm looking forward to continuing to do absolutely nothing. If I had a time machine I'd include him in 07/08's Flop All-Star squad.

CyHi Da Prynce: Unproven but solid selection, although would he be here without the Kanye co-sign? (Otherwise known as the annual "we have to include someone from G.O.O.D. Music or Yeezy will stop giving us interviews" pick.)

Big K.R.I.T.: Excellent selection. While K.R.I.T. won't ever become a supserstar, assuming Def Jam doesn't crumple into a pile of dust he'll be around for a long time to come. (Should I point out that the mothership was f**king with K.R.I.T. well before XXL and that we exclusively released "K.R.I.T. Wuz Here"? Naw, that'd be bragging, and I'm not egotistical like that.)

Meek Mill: Otherwise known as the annual "we have to include someone from Maybach Music or Rick Ross will stop giving us interviews" pick. Notice a pattern here?

Diggy Simmons: Safe pick. With that team behind him he's a good bet to still be around in five years.

Kendrick Lamar: Probably their best pick from a quality vs. unsigned perspective (the other quality emcees here are all signed). I have to applaud XXl for this one.

Yelawolf: Excellent selection. With Eminem backing him up the sky's really the limit. (Should I point out that the mothership was f**king with Yela well before XXL and that we exclusively released "Trunk Muzik"? Naw, that'd be bragging, and I've got a serious case of deja vu.)

Fred The Godson: To be honest, not really sure who he is, not really sure how he got on this list. So.....um.....

Mac Miller: Basically this is XXL saying, "people love Wiz Khalifa, I bet people will really love a young white version of Wiz Khalifa". Frankly it's a smart move. Not personally a fan, but Miller's a better rapper than people give him credit for, and I get the feeling he'll be around for a minute.

Lil B: Obviously the most controversial pick, but unlike previous controversial picks (see OJ Da Juiceman) Lil B has at least a 50/50 chance of still being here in a few years. Unlike a lot of the previous flops he's built a large, devoted fan base completely on his own.

All in all a solid class. Obviously far from perfect but there's really nothing to get particularly angry about it.

The Conclusion:

From an accuracy/respect standpoint there's really no more reason to take this seriously than if I posted a list that my homey George put up (good dude, doesn't know that much about hip-hop). Still, I just devoted more than 1,000 words to this list, so in the end XXL is winning. As as long as they're winning, I'm looking forward to doing this all over again next year. Until then, enjoy taking this way too seriously for the next week or so and then forgetting about it.